2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,111 sqft ·
Built 1999
· Townhouse
· Active
· 4 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,996/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,673
Tax + insurance
−$532
HOA
−$407
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$629
Net cashflow
$-244/mo
Annual
$-2,932/yr
Cap rate
5.37%
Cash-on-cash
-3.28%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$89,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (11.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (6.1% below list).
Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $284k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#525 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, crime F, amenities F.
Port Aransas ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #68 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Olsen El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 227 students, 35% FRL); Brundrett Middle (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 115 students, 31% FRL); Port Aransas H S (math 74% / reading 74%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 204 students, 19% FRL).
Market conditions: 1194 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.1% in Port Aransas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5ACS0N3PR1JBQQ
· Data 3 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29