148 Ocean Oval Dr

Ocean Pines, MD 21811

$124,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,611 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 256 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$173
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $1,176/mo
• Annual: $14,114/yr
• Cap rate: 18.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.64%
• DSCR: 2.90
• 1% rule: 2.36%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#172 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 3.3% in Ocean Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.