148 Ocean Oval Dr · Ocean Pines, MD 21811

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,611 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1986 2,633 sqft lot $78/sqft · 72% below area Est $173k · 28% under $173/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Awesome vacation get-away or second home! White Horse Park is a fantastic waterfront community that sits off the beaten path, yet just minutes to Ocean City! Boaters will love the option to have their boat, trailer or kayaks on-site for a small annual fee. Many other community amenities as well, including on-site management office, marina, outdoor pool, laundry facilities and separate community room. This home features three bedrooms, one full bath, a fully equipped kitchen with breakfast bar, electric range and full size fridge, new LVP floors throughout. From the living room, there are sliding doors to a full-width screened porch. There is a storage shed included. Sellers will provide b

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Waterfront community
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• ON-SITE MANAGEMENT OFFICE
• OUTDOOR POOL
• SEPARATE COMMUNITY ROOM
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 3.3% in Ocean Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#172 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.64%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,786
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -27.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Windjammer Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,585 (-2%)	0mo	$380,000	$240	70
14 White Sail Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	0mo	$429,000	$286	69
11215 Saint Martins Pkwy	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,729 (+7%)	3mo	$490,000	$283	66
28 White Horse Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	17mo	$440,000	$278	63
100 White Horse Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-9%)	2mo	$390,000	$267	57
69 Windjammer Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-3%)	14mo	$355,000	$226	52
6 White Cap Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+6%)	20mo	$365,000	$215	49
23 Whaler Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-6%)	16mo	$422,000	$279	46
284 Ocean Pkwy	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-13%)	5mo	$258,000	$185	42
7 Clipper Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	14mo	$667,000	$463	39
189 Ocean Pkwy	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-10%)	15mo	$350,000	$242	39
33 Newport	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+8%)	19mo	$320,000	$184	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $54,895
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $145,166
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21811

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,467/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$173
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $1,176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,247	-5% $1,212	+0% $1,176	+5% $1,141	+10% $1,105
Rent	-10% $943	-5% $1,060	+0% $1,176	+5% $1,293	+10% $1,409
Rate	-1.0pp $1,239	-0.5pp $1,208	base $1,176	+0.5pp $1,144	+1.0pp $1,111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Abbyshire Rd Berlin, MD	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,295	$1.26	21d	1	1.08mi
45 Offshore Ln Berlin, MD	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,000	$1.70	21d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $173 · $2,076/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $124,900 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 240 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 239 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 238 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 237 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    historical
17. 2026-04-27
    price $129,900
18. 2026-03-24
    price $134,900
19. 2026-01-26
    price $141,900
20. 2025-09-26
    historical
21. 2025-09-26
    listed $149,900 Active
22. 2025-08-13
    price $149,900
23. 2025-05-31
    price $154,900
24. 2025-05-13
    price $159,900
25. 2025-04-29
    price $164,900
26. 2025-02-23
    price $169,900
27. 2024-10-25
    listed $179,500 Active
28. 2024-10-21
    historical
29. 2008-06-20
    soldstatus $285,000
30. 2008-06-11
    soldstatus $285,000
31. 2007-07-20
    listed $309,000
32. 2002-09-19
    soldstatus $210,000
33. 2002-06-20
    listed $214,900
34. 2002-03-05
    soldstatus $50,000
35. 2002-03-04
    soldstatus $50,000
36. 2001-12-10
    listed $55,000
37. 1997-08-28
    historical
38. 1997-02-05
    listed $28,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,467 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,467 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,467
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,829
• − Management: −$2,829
• − HOA: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $13,113
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,147
• After-tax cash flow: $10,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $56,748
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5672
• State rank: #6 of 24 in MD

Livability — Ocean Pines

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #7691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Pines, MD
• County: Worcester County · 35,603 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 24,377
• Household income: $90,082
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,363 people
• By 2030: 51,191 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 50,459 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 49,451 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 48,533 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 44,223 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 38.0% · R 60.0% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.52%
• Current HPI: 292.9004
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+349.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $141,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $164,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-23 Price Changed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $179,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-21 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-11 Sold (MLS) $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-20 Listed $309,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-09-19 Sold (MLS) $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-06-20 Listed $214,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-04 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-12-10 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-08-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-02-05 Listed $28,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,467 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.