83 Lawrence Road Rd

Hunter, NY 12444

$649,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$1,137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $15,209/mo
• Annual: $182,512/yr
• Cap rate: 34.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.80%
• DSCR: 5.49
• 1% rule: 3.85%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($183k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $649k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $591k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#971 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: housing D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Hunter-Tannersville Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #425 of 755 in NY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hunter Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 186 students, 45% FRL); Hunter-Tannersville Middle School High School (math 52% / reading 44%, grade D, #1,002 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 153 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $329k; list at $649k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 34.5% vs local median 1.6% in Hunter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.