83 Lawrence Road Rd · Hunter, NY 12444

$649,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Built 2003 3.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Right in the middle of it all! Check out this lovely log sided mountain chalet ready for all your skiing and summer fun. The soaring stone fireplace will keep you snug on cold winter nights and there is a large deck for taking in the warm days. This home is tucked away for privacy yet close to both Windham and Hunter. A large finished basement provides extra living/game room space with extra storage areas perfect for your wine cellar. Seasonal views, and a large 2 car garage complete this perfect picture. Priced to sell and ready to move right in!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Stone fireplace
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• STONE FIREPLACE
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• UPDATED MAIN-LEVEL BATHROOM
• SECOND-FLOOR PRIMARY EN-SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway and off-street parking; Garage faces side
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; 200+ Amp electric service
• Home design: Single family residence; House
• Construction: Frame, log, and wood siding construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Built as a house (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Sliding doors; Private, wooded setting; Has view; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: High ceilings; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Finished basement; Stone fireplace in living room (1 fireplace)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $649k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($183k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $649k).
• Recommended offer: $591k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.5% vs local median 1.6% in Hunter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#971 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: housing D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Hunter-Tannersville Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #425 of 755 in NY (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hunter Elementary School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 186 students, 45% FRL); Hunter-Tannersville Middle School High School (math 52% / reading 44%, grade D, #1,002 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 153 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $182k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $329k; list at $649k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $590,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 100.80%
• DSCR: 5.49
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 Beaches Corners Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-15%)	23mo	$1	—	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $914,587
• Equity at exit: $150,650

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.52×
• Total profit: $2,092,512
• Equity at exit: $153,127

Cash invested: $181,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12444

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$811 /mo · $9,735/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $15,209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,748

Max offer price $649,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15,658	-5% $15,434	+0% $15,209	+5% $14,985	+10% $14,761
Rent	-10% $13,234	-5% $14,222	+0% $15,209	+5% $16,197	+10% $17,184
Rate	-1.0pp $15,536	-0.5pp $15,374	base $15,209	+0.5pp $15,041	+1.0pp $14,870

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,250
• Closing costs: $19,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Twin Pond Rd Jewett, NY	4.0	3.0	2000	$25,000	$12.50	16d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-05
   listed $649,000 Active
4. 2016-11-17
   soldstatus $329,000 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   Right in the middle of it all! Check out this lovely log sided mountain chalet ready for all your skiing and summer fun. The soaring stone fireplace will keep you snug on cold winter nights and there is a large deck for taking in the warm days. This home is tucked away for privacy yet close to both Windham and Hunter. A large finished basement provides extra living/game room space with extra storage areas perfect for your wine cellar. Seasonal views, and a large 2 car garage complete this perfect picture. Priced to sell and ready to move right in!

5. 2016-09-13
   listed $335,000 554-char remark

   Show marketing remark (554 chars)

   Right in the middle of it all! Check out this lovely log sided mountain chalet ready for all your skiing and summer fun. The soaring stone fireplace will keep you snug on cold winter nights and there is a large deck for taking in the warm days. This home is tucked away for privacy yet close to both Windham and Hunter. A large finished basement provides extra living/game room space with extra storage areas perfect for your wine cellar. Seasonal views, and a large 2 car garage complete this perfect picture. Priced to sell and ready to move right in!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,354
• − Property taxes: −$9,735
• − Insurance: −$3,912
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$18,880
• Taxable income: $183,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43,949
• After-tax cash flow: $138,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hunter-Tannersville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615060
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,719
• Composite: 46.19/100
• National rank: #5442
• State rank: #425 of 755 in NY

Livability — Hunter

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #971
• US rank: #18992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 519

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Two or more races 38% Hispanic / Latino 34%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 5% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.19%
• Current HPI: 483.4459
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $649,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-11-17 Sold (MLS) $329,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-09-13 Listed $335,000 HVCRMLS