233 W Branch Rd

Smethport, PA 16749

$125,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,467 sqft · Built 1900 · Other · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,180/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $106/mo
• Annual: $1,268/yr
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.62%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#425 in PA, #3,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety D.
• Smethport Area SD (rural): math 34% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #270 of 539 in PA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in McKean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McKean County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $125k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.