233 W Branch Rd · Smethport, PA 16749

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,467 sqft · Other public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1900 1.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see this 3-bedroom home on large 1.58-acre level lot. Offering comfortable one-level living, this home features a full bathroom along with new on-demand water heater and boiler, providing efficient and reliable heating and hot water. There is an attached single car garage with a storage shed in back. Enjoy the benefits of low property taxes while being surrounded by some of the area's best outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near PA State Game Lands, this property is ideal for hunting, fishing and nature enthusiasts. The UTV-friendly road adds to the appeal, making it easy to explore the surrounding countryside. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a recreational retreat, this property offers peaceful living with direct access to the outdoors.

Key facts

• Large level lot
• Storage shed
• Utv-friendly road

Tags

• LARGE LEVEL LOT
• NEW ON-DEMAND WATER HEATER
• ATTACHED SINGLE CAR GARAGE
• STORAGE SHED
• LOW PROPERTY TAXES
• UTV-FRIENDLY ROAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#425 in PA, #3,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety D.
• Smethport Area SD (rural): math 34% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #270 of 539 in PA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in McKean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• McKean County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $125k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.62%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,868
• Equity at exit: $48,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $52,499
• Equity at exit: $69,990

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16749

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,427/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,046

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $141	+0% $106	+5% $70	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $59	+0% $106	+5% $152	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $137	base $106	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (812 chars)

   Must see this 3-bedroom ranch home on a large 1.58-acre level lot. Offering comfortable one-level living, this home features a full bathroom along with new on-demand water heater and boiler, providing efficient and reliable heating and hot water. There is an attached single car garage with a storage shed in back of home. Enjoy the benefits of low property taxes while being surrounded by some the area's best outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near PA State Game Lands, this property is ideal for hunting, fishing and nature enthusiasts. The UTV-friendly road adds to the appeal, making it easy to explore the surrounding countryside. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a recreational retreat, this property offers peaceful living with direct access to the outdoors.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 812-char remark

   Show marketing remark (812 chars)

   Must see this 3-bedroom ranch home on a large 1.58-acre level lot. Offering comfortable one-level living, this home features a full bathroom along with new on-demand water heater and boiler, providing efficient and reliable heating and hot water. There is an attached single car garage with a storage shed in back of home. Enjoy the benefits of low property taxes while being surrounded by some the area's best outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near PA State Game Lands, this property is ideal for hunting, fishing and nature enthusiasts. The UTV-friendly road adds to the appeal, making it easy to explore the surrounding countryside. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a recreational retreat, this property offers peaceful living with direct access to the outdoors.

3. 2026-01-26
   listed $125,000 Active 812-char remark

   Show marketing remark (812 chars)

   Must see this 3-bedroom ranch home on a large 1.58-acre level lot. Offering comfortable one-level living, this home features a full bathroom along with new on-demand water heater and boiler, providing efficient and reliable heating and hot water. There is an attached single car garage with a storage shed in back of home. Enjoy the benefits of low property taxes while being surrounded by some the area's best outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near PA State Game Lands, this property is ideal for hunting, fishing and nature enthusiasts. The UTV-friendly road adds to the appeal, making it easy to explore the surrounding countryside. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a recreational retreat, this property offers peaceful living with direct access to the outdoors.

4. 2025-12-14
   listed $125,000 Active 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   Must see this 3-bedroom home on large 1.58-acre level lot. Offering comfortable one-level living, this home features a full bathroom along with new on-demand water heater and boiler, providing efficient and reliable heating and hot water. There is an attached single car garage with a storage shed in back. Enjoy the benefits of low property taxes while being surrounded by some of the area's best outdoor recreation. Conveniently located near PA State Game Lands, this property is ideal for hunting, fishing and nature enthusiasts. The UTV-friendly road adds to the appeal, making it easy to explore the surrounding countryside. Whether you are looking for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or a recreational retreat, this property offers peaceful living with direct access to the outdoors.

5. 2019-03-27
   soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 19.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,427
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$191
• After-tax cash flow: $1,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smethport Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,944
• Composite: 38.48/100
• National rank: #4186
• State rank: #270 of 539 in PA

Livability — Smethport

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #3875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,691

Population outlook (McKean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,518 people
• By 2030: 39,290 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 36,438 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 33,556 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 27,682 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 21,726 · -46.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McKean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.2) · D 26.0% · R 73.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.3pp · 2024: -47.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.2 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+28.2 2008: R+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Current HPI: 116.303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+62.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NMPA
• 2026-05-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $125,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-14 Listed $125,000 NMPA
• 2019-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,427 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.