2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,520 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Condo
· Active
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,859/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,879
Tax + insurance
−$691
HOA
−$930
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,020
Net cashflow
$-662/mo
Annual
$-7,941/yr
Cap rate
4.85%
Cash-on-cash
-5.17%
DSCR
0.77
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$153,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $549k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-662 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (21.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $486k (11.5% below list).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $432k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Jupiter Elementary School (math 53% / reading 47%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 832 students, 69% FRL); Jupiter Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #116 of 571 statewide, top 21%, 1,384 students, 38% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 19507% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $415k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.7% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,859/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 445% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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