1604 Central Ave

Sandusky, OH 44870

$159,000B

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $1,133/mo
• Annual: $13,598/yr
• Cap rate: 14.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.54%
• DSCR: 2.36
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#63 in OH, #929 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, employment F.
• Sandusky City (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #583 of 656 in OH (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: The Sandusky Intermediate School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,135 of 1,584 statewide, top 73%, 909 students, 0% FRL); Sandusky Middle School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #580 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 468 students, 0% FRL); Sandusky High School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #627 of 781 statewide, top 81%, 1,004 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 71% district-wide (71 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 128 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $159k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 6.1% in Sandusky — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,717/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1602% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.