QUAIL RIDGE Plan

Spring Hill, FL 34609

$269,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,650
• Tax + insurance: −$524
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-434/mo
• Annual: $-5,206/yr
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $88,094

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John D. Floyd Elementary School (math 43% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 948 students, 63% FRL); Powell Middle School (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,004 students, 50% FRL); Frank W. Springstead High School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 1,896 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.8%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 78d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.