QUAIL RIDGE Plan · Spring Hill, FL 34609

$269,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Quail Ridge floor plan. A spacious single-level home that combines functionality with fresh, modern design. This open-concept floor plan brings together the kitchen, dining, and living areas and provides a seamless flow. The kitchen features white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a peninsula with seating. The private owner's suite ncludes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks. Three additional bedrooms provide flexible space for whatever fits your needs with a second full bathroom conveniently located nearby. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, offering a comfortable place to relax.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 150 days

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $314,623.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-434 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John D. Floyd Elementary School (math 43% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 948 students, 63% FRL); Powell Middle School (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,004 students, 50% FRL); Frank W. Springstead High School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 1,896 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.8%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 78d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,310 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,623
• List price: $269,990
• Delta: -14.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2124 Deborah Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,723 (+3%)	4mo	$280,000	$163	74
12106 Deep Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,779 (+6%)	1mo	$375,000	$211	68
11030 Linden Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-10%)	5mo	$289,900	$194	64
2327 Eva Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (+1%)	1mo	$333,000	$197	64
1299 Stallings Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,747 (+4%)	6mo	$329,000	$188	64
11417 Corrigan St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (+13%)	8mo	$365,000	$194	57
1411 Mariner Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-4%)	7mo	$290,000	$181	56
2307 Glenridge Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,755 (+5%)	7mo	$346,050	$197	53
2339 Renton Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-7%)	4mo	$310,000	$199	49
2314 Lema Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-14%)	5mo	$304,500	$211	44
2370 Bonkirk Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-8%)	9mo	$333,000	$217	42
1487 Alameda Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,912 (+14%)	9mo	$410,000	$214	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,037
• Equity at exit: $46,911

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-134,445
• Equity at exit: $27,203

Cash invested: $88,094 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 36 active · 33 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $322,445 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34609

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -4.8%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$393 /mo · $4,719/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,752

Max offer price $251,846

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-216	-5% $-325	+0% $-434	+5% $-543	+10% $-651
Rent	-10% $-608	-5% $-521	+0% $-434	+5% $-347	+10% $-260
Rate	-1.0pp $-275	-0.5pp $-354	base $-434	+0.5pp $-515	+1.0pp $-598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,656
• Closing costs: $9,439
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2133 Lema Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,675	$1.45	10d	1	0.28mi
1411 Deborah Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,849	$1.06	162d	1	0.40mi
11143 Holbrook St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,750	$1.31	77d	1	0.61mi
1303 Vitality RUN Brooksville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1355	$2,950	$2.18	0d	21	0.62mi
12150 Folger St Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1889	$2,600	$1.38	101d	1	0.64mi
12156 Monarco Ln Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,920	$1.07	1d	1	0.65mi
2353 Glenridge Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,400	$1.31	87d	1	0.66mi
11348 Linden Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,895	$1.70	165d	1	0.68mi
11244 Redgate St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,900	$1.39	77d	1	0.73mi
1000 Burgundy Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1975	$2,341	$1.19	0d	4	0.78mi
10485 Lightwood St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,941	$1.54	90d	1	0.80mi
10485 Lightwood St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,720	$1.36	37d	1	0.80mi
11177 Redgate St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	165d	1	0.82mi
1412 Hathaway Ave Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1788	$1,995	$1.12	10d	1	0.84mi
1425 Hathaway Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,895	$1.46	41d	1	0.87mi
11379 Deercroft Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$1,800	$0.99	165d	1	0.90mi
2491 Stanton Ave Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1325	$1,649	$1.24	121d	1	0.90mi
11018 Audie Brook Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,700	$1.02	88d	1	0.94mi
11425 Billingham Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,100	$1.23	1d	1	0.95mi
11425 Billingham Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1706	$2,100	$1.23	109d	1	0.95mi
11515 Linden Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.5	2142	$2,050	$0.96	18d	1	0.98mi
3017 Lema Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,920	$1.48	145d	1	1.01mi
11013 Little St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1789	$1,920	$1.07	119d	1	1.02mi
10457 Laval St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$1,719	$0.98	29d	1	1.03mi
3041 Hoban Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,849	$1.38	165d	1	1.05mi
10499 Little St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,739	$1.27	40d	1	1.05mi
3042 Pintado Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,835	$1.42	77d	1	1.07mi
3985 Lema Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,995	$1.12	53d	1	1.07mi
3985 Lema Dr Spring Hill, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,995	$1.12	55d	1	1.07mi
11624 Linden Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,945	$1.39	155d	1	1.08mi
3053 Stanton Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,060	$1.29	161d	1	1.09mi
2079 De Carlo Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,875	$1.37	119d	1	1.11mi
10387 Ventura Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,800	$1.19	158d	1	1.14mi
12305 Drake Ln Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1828	$1,840	$1.01	129d	1	1.17mi
2469 Lackland Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,699	$1.53	55d	1	1.23mi
1347 Overland Dr Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1941	$2,095	$1.08	7d	1	1.27mi
3841 Daybreak Run Loop Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,995	$1.36	2d	1	1.28mi
3827 Daybreak Run Loop Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.5	1924	$2,500	$1.30	2d	1	1.29mi
3026 Lackland Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,000	$1.15	10d	1	1.31mi
3302 Coronet Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,120	$1.48	165d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $259,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (QUAIL RIDGE)
• Exterior features: Plan home in Quail RidgeAddress: Spring Hill, FL 34609

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,672 total living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $269,990 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $269,990 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $269,990 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $269,990 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $269,990 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $269,990 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $269,990 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $269,990 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $269,990 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $269,990 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $269,990 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $269,990 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $269,990 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $269,990 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $269,990 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $269,990 Active 133 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $269,990 Active 132 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $269,990 Active 131 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $269,990 Active 130 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $269,990 Active 129 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $269,990 Active 128 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $269,990 Active 127 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $269,990 Active 126 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    price $269,990 Active 125 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $259,990 Active 125 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $259,990 Active 124 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $259,990 Active 123 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $259,990 Active 122 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $259,990 Active 121 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $259,990 Active 120 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $259,990 Active 119 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $259,990 Active 118 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $259,990 Active 117 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $259,990 Active 116 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 115 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 114 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $259,990 Active 113 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $259,990 Active 112 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $259,990 Active 111 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $259,990 Active 110 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $259,990 Active 109 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $259,990 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $259,990 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $259,990 Active 105 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $259,990 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $259,990 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $259,990 Active 102 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $259,990 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,624
• − Property taxes: −$4,719
• − Insurance: −$1,573
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$9,153
• Taxable loss: −$10,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,360–$25,080 screening

This Quail Ridge single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a spacious open-concept floor plan, modern design, and well-maintained exterior. The home is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and trimming the landscaping for a more polished look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary John D. Floyd Elementary School D FL #1,171/2,144 Nat'l #14,249/41,679 Middle Powell Middle School C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Frank W. Springstead High School D+ FL #175/667 Nat'l #5,448/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 189,218 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,257
• Household income: $79,442
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.49%
• Current HPI: 286.5885
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.82%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $259,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (QUAIL RIDGE)
• Exterior features: Plan home in Quail RidgeAddress: Spring Hill, FL 34609

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,672 total living area)