15865 Thrasher Rd

Alvin, WI 54542

$175,000F

2 bd · None ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,013/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-409/mo
• Annual: $-4,910/yr
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.02%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (42.1% below list).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandon School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #307 of 342 in WI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Crandon Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #783 of 1,041 statewide, top 79%, 403 students, 34% FRL); Crandon Middle (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #232 of 383 statewide, top 64%, 187 students, 41% FRL); Crandon High (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #414 of 483 statewide, top 87%, 242 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Forest County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forest County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.