15865 Thrasher Rd · Long Lake, WI 54542

$175,000

2 bd · None ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2003 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This off grid cabin directly borders national forest on two sides, is located 1/4 mile off the public road and accessed through Forest Sevice land plus the public road is a designated snowmobile/UTV trail. Walk out your cabin door and have direct access to tens of thousands of acres to hunt, fish, trap, snowmobile & UTV. You will never run out of new areas to explore & and you can enjoy trout fishing Lily Pad Creek just a couple hundred feet from this property. Enjoy outdoor activities in any weather with a 620 Ft. 2 covered deck that connects both cabins. The main cabin was built in 2003 and is 860 Ft. 2 while the older cabin/bunk house was built in 1975 and is 300 Ft. 2 per Seller. Water is supplied from a pitcher pump with an outhouse for bathroom. Stove and refrigerator is run on Lp, wood stove for heat with a back up Lp heater. Current owner had rock laid down all the way from Thrasher Road to the cabin so you can enjoy 4-season access. This property is well suited for the TRUE outdoor enthusiast. Call today for a guided tour.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• 4 season access
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• BORDERS NATIONAL FOREST
• DIRECT ACCESS TO ACRES
• TROUT FISHING LILY PAD CREEK
• COVERED DECK
• 4 SEASON ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-409 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (42.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#754 in WI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crandon School District (rural): math 26% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #307 of 342 in WI (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Forest County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Forest County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $101,292 (42.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.02%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $56,415
• Equity at exit: $143,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $184,113
• Equity at exit: $297,026

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54542

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $-409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $115,791

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-288	-5% $-349	+0% $-409	+5% $-470	+10% $-530
Rent	-10% $-489	-5% $-449	+0% $-409	+5% $-369	+10% $-329
Rate	-1.0pp $-321	-0.5pp $-365	base $-409	+0.5pp $-455	+1.0pp $-501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-01-08
    listed $175,000 Active 1059-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    This off grid cabin directly borders national forest on two sides, is located 1/4 mile off the public road and accessed through Forest Sevice land plus the public road is a designated snowmobile/UTV trail. Walk out your cabin door and have direct access to tens of thousands of acres to hunt, fish, trap, snowmobile & UTV. You will never run out of new areas to explore & and you can enjoy trout fishing Lily Pad Creek just a couple hundred feet from this property. Enjoy outdoor activities in any weather with a 620 Ft. 2 covered deck that connects both cabins. The main cabin was built in 2003 and is 860 Ft. 2 while the older cabin/bunk house was built in 1975 and is 300 Ft. 2 per Seller. Water is supplied from a pitcher pump with an outhouse for bathroom. Stove and refrigerator is run on Lp, wood stove for heat with a back up Lp heater. Current owner had rock laid down all the way from Thrasher Road to the cabin so you can enjoy 4-season access. This property is well suited for the TRUE outdoor enthusiast. Call today for a guided tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$972
• − Management: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$8,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,964
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandon School District
• NCES district ID: 5502910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,247
• Composite: 22.69/100
• National rank: #8041
• State rank: #307 of 342 in WI

Livability — Long Lake

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #754
• US rank: #22103

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 615

Population outlook (Forest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,449 people
• By 2030: 8,032 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,064 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -27.6%
• By 2075: 4,592 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 3,630 · -57.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 20%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 8% Iranian 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Forest

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 33.0% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -48.5pp toward R · 2008: 15.2pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+30.9 2016: R+26.7 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.91%
• Current HPI: 184.9568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $175,000 CWMLS