605 Outrigger Ct

Topsail Beach, NC 28443

$199,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,299/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$195
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $404/mo
• Annual: $4,847/yr
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#626 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Topsail Elementary (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 557 students, 34% FRL); Topsail Middle (math 64% / reading 65%, grade A-, #30 of 475 statewide, top 7%, 807 students, 20% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $199k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.0% in Topsail Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.