605 Outrigger Ct · Topsail Beach, NC 28443

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1989 7,405 sqft lot Est $217k · 8% under $195/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is a great deal. Open and bright with large rooms. Cul-de-sac. Fireplace and screened porch

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Covered carport
• Sunroom

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• SUNROOM
• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Topsail Greens
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $2,340 (about $195/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered garage
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single story); Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed deck; No fencing; Shingle roof; Has a view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.0% in Topsail Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#626 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Topsail Elementary (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 557 students, 34% FRL); Topsail Middle (math 64% / reading 65%, grade A-, #30 of 475 statewide, top 7%, 807 students, 20% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $199k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.70%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,396
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Plank Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	8mo	$218,000	$144	83
105 Navy Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+5%)	4mo	$197,500	$120	82
610 Galley Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+0%)	9mo	$214,000	$136	81
506 Fathom Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	9mo	$224,900	$143	80
713 Nautical Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	14mo	$259,900	$166	79
614 Galley Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	12mo	$200,000	$132	75
515 Pirate Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+6%)	17mo	$180,000	$108	74
619 Outrigger Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,417 (-9%)	6mo	$220,000	$155	72
719 Nautical Ct	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-10%)	1mo	$195,000	$139	67
210 Spar Ct	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-2%)	17mo	$200,000	$131	61
214 Champion Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-12%)	14mo	$210,000	$152	54
108 Doral Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,368 (-12%)	2mo	$128,500	$94	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,777
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $46,567
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28443

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,091/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26 Mullein Dr Hampstead, NC	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1542	$2,460	$1.60	14d	21	0.16mi
121 Mulberry Cir Hampstead, NC	4.0	3.0	2171	$2,500	$1.15	21d	1	0.75mi
508 Azalea Dr Hampstead, NC	3.0	3.0	2154	$2,450	$1.14	14d	1	0.82mi
702 Azalea Dr Hampstead, NC	2.0	2.0	1210	$1,300	$1.07	21d	1	0.88mi
200 Susans Dr Hampstead, NC	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,700	$1.42	21d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 689-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,091 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$541/yr (+$45/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,091
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $4,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pender County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,792
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3342
• State rank: #66 of 178 in NC

Livability — Topsail Beach

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #626
• US rank: #22791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety D User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pender County · 28,416 people
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,416
• Household income: $90,477
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Pender County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,295 people
• By 2030: 74,990 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 85,954 · +24.0%
• By 2050: 95,925 · +38.4%
• By 2075: 117,525 · +69.6%
• By 2100: 129,074 · +86.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pender

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.0) · D 32.1% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.0 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+30.4 2012: R+20.4 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.51%
• Current HPI: 188.426
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.57%
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+184.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2002-07-09 Sold (MLS) $62,000 Hive MLS
• 2002-05-28 Listed $69,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,091 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.