23609 Crosswinds Way

California, MD 20619

$432,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,452 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,262/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,265
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-308/mo
• Annual: $-3,697/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $120,960

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $432k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $326k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollywood Elementary (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #251 of 860 statewide, top 30%, 474 students, 30% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Leonardtown High (math 59% / reading 76%, grade B, #48 of 222 statewide, top 22%, 2,039 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in California — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.