23609 Crosswinds Way · California, MD 20619

$432,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,452 sqft · Townhouse public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2025 1,980 sqft lot $176/sqft · at area comps Est $428k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller!!!! Ready to make a deal!!!! 2025 Build. Why wait for new construction when this home is completely move-in ready and loaded with upgrades. This beautiful home offers 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms with a versatile and highly desirable layout. The entry level features an oversized two-car garage equipped with an electric vehicle charging plug, a rare and valuable feature. This level also includes a private fourth bedroom with its own full bathroom, perfect for guests, an in-law suite, or a private home office. The main level showcases modern design ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The stunning kitchen sits at the center of the home and features a massive granite island, high-end cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen is a spacious family room and a separate dining area that leads to the rear deck, creating the perfect space for relaxing or grilling. Upstairs you will find three generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The owner’s suite easily accommodates a king-sized bed with room for additional furniture, creating a comfortable personal retreat. The en-suite bathroom features a gorgeous ceramic tile shower and granite double-bowl vanity. The community offers fantastic amenities including a playground, a new clubhouse with a daycare center, and a community pool. Conveniently located near Solomons Island, St. Mary's County, Naval Air Station Patuxent River, and Calvert Cliffs State Park, with easy access to local dining, shopping, and entertainment.

Key facts

• High-end cabinetry
• Rear deck
• $100 HOA

Tags

• ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING PLUG
• PRIVATE FOURTH BEDROOM
• MASSIVE GRANITE ISLAND
• HIGH-END CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• REAR DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $432k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-308 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in California — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollywood Elementary (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #251 of 860 statewide, top 30%, 474 students, 30% FRL); Esperanza Middle (math 18% / reading 41%, grade F, #67 of 225 statewide, top 32%, 875 students, 41% FRL); Leonardtown High (math 59% / reading 76%, grade B, #48 of 222 statewide, top 22%, 2,039 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($119k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $326,245 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.06%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $428,186
• List price: $432,000
• Delta: 0.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23600 Crosswinds Way	0.02mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,412 (-2%)	2mo	$449,900	$187	90
45419 Concord Way	0.09mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,412 (-2%)	1mo	$464,000	$192	87
45324 Foghorn Way	0.04mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,412 (-2%)	8mo	$450,000	$187	81
23610 Goodwill Way	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,672 (+9%)	0mo	$438,000	$164	79
23756 Myrtle Glen Way	0.36mi	4/3.5	2,432 (-1%)	6mo	$435,000	$179	77
45484 Woodslea Way	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,452 (0%)	2mo	$437,500	$178	74
45429 Englewood Way	0.28mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,548 (+4%)	2mo	$430,000	$169	74
23772 Myrtle Glen Way	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,492 (+2%)	7mo	$420,000	$169	73
45301 Foghorn Way	0.04mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,772 (+13%)	3mo	$435,000	$157	69
45401 Concord Way	0.09mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,742 (+12%)	1mo	$473,000	$173	68
23776 Myrtle Glen Way	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,432 (-1%)	7mo	$434,500	$179	67
23807 Myrtle Glen Way	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,130 (-13%)	8mo	$410,000	$192	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.3% appreciation · 6.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $29,428
• Equity at exit: $177,562

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $174,511
• Equity at exit: $261,318

Cash invested: $120,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20619

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,265
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,079/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$685
• Net cashflow: $-308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,652

Max offer price $377,580

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-186	+0% $-308	+5% $-430	+10% $-553
Rent	-10% $-566	-5% $-437	+0% $-308	+5% $-179	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-91	-0.5pp $-198	base $-308	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,000
• Closing costs: $12,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23810 Myrtle Glen Way California, MD	3.0	2.5	2452	$2,850	$1.16	4d	1	0.48mi
23861 Myrtle Glen Way California, MD	3.0	3.5	2766	$2,950	$1.07	13d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $432,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $432,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $432,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $432,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $432,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $432,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $432,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $432,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $432,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $450,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $450,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $450,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $450,000 1546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1546 chars)

    Motivated seller!!!! Ready to make a deal!!!! 2025 Build. Why wait for new construction when this home is completely move-in ready and loaded with upgrades. This beautiful home offers 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms with a versatile and highly desirable layout. The entry level features an oversized two-car garage equipped with an electric vehicle charging plug, a rare and valuable feature. This level also includes a private fourth bedroom with its own full bathroom, perfect for guests, an in-law suite, or a private home office. The main level showcases modern design ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The stunning kitchen sits at the center of the home and features a massive granite island, high-end cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen is a spacious family room and a separate dining area that leads to the rear deck, creating the perfect space for relaxing or grilling. Upstairs you will find three generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The owner’s suite easily accommodates a king-sized bed with room for additional furniture, creating a comfortable personal retreat. The en-suite bathroom features a gorgeous ceramic tile shower and granite double-bowl vanity. The community offers fantastic amenities including a playground, a new clubhouse with a daycare center, and a community pool. Conveniently located near Solomons Island, St. Mary's County, Naval Air Station Patuxent River, and Calvert Cliffs State Park, with easy access to local dining, shopping, and entertainment.

18. 2026-03-06
    listed $454,900 Active 1546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1546 chars)

    Motivated seller!!!! Ready to make a deal!!!! 2025 Build. Why wait for new construction when this home is completely move-in ready and loaded with upgrades. This beautiful home offers 4 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms with a versatile and highly desirable layout. The entry level features an oversized two-car garage equipped with an electric vehicle charging plug, a rare and valuable feature. This level also includes a private fourth bedroom with its own full bathroom, perfect for guests, an in-law suite, or a private home office. The main level showcases modern design ideal for both entertaining and everyday living. The stunning kitchen sits at the center of the home and features a massive granite island, high-end cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Just off the kitchen is a spacious family room and a separate dining area that leads to the rear deck, creating the perfect space for relaxing or grilling. Upstairs you will find three generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The owner’s suite easily accommodates a king-sized bed with room for additional furniture, creating a comfortable personal retreat. The en-suite bathroom features a gorgeous ceramic tile shower and granite double-bowl vanity. The community offers fantastic amenities including a playground, a new clubhouse with a daycare center, and a community pool. Conveniently located near Solomons Island, St. Mary's County, Naval Air Station Patuxent River, and Calvert Cliffs State Park, with easy access to local dining, shopping, and entertainment.

19. 2025-12-12
    historical
20. 2025-11-14
    price $450,800
21. 2025-09-30
    listed $460,000 Active
22. 2025-09-29
    historical
23. 2025-05-29
    soldstatus $437,790
24. 2024-12-16
    soldstatus $477,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,079 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,394 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,199
• − Property taxes: −$4,079
• − Insurance: −$2,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,132
• − Management: −$3,132
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$12,567
• Taxable loss: −$11,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,717
• After-tax cash flow: $-980/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 14,212
• Household income: $119,432
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Current HPI: 239.4326
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $454,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $450,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $460,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $437,790 Public Records
• 2024-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $477,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+352.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,079 · +352.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.