456 Greenwood Dr

Meadow Vista, CA 95722

$439,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,953 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,765/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$534
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$791
• Net cashflow: $137/mo
• Annual: $1,649/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $376k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $376k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#609 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Hills Elementary (367 students, 29% FRL); Weimar Hills (398 students, 29% FRL); Colfax High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 666 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $378k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 1.8% in Meadow Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.