15554 Doublecreek Dr

San Antonio, TX 78253

$258,499D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,356
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-248/mo
• Annual: $-2,976/yr
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $72,380

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.