15554 Doublecreek Dr · San Antonio, TX 78253

$258,499

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 4,356 sqft lot $143/sqft · 14% below area Est $302k · 14% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,916 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,180
• List price: $258,499
• Delta: -14.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15587 Lonehollow Lk	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,709 (-5%)	1mo	$299,990	$176	85
15580 Lonehollow Lk	0.04mi	4/3.0	1,956 (+8%)	6mo	$326,990	$167	79
15568 Lonehollow Lk	0.04mi	4/3.0	1,999 (+11%)	2mo	$334,990	$168	78
15575 Lonehollow Lk	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,011 (+12%)	2mo	$324,990	$162	78
15557 Doublecreek Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+11%)	1mo	$259,999	$130	76
15584 Lonehollow Lk	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,011 (+12%)	4mo	$344,990	$172	76
15579 Lonehollow Lk	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,669 (-7%)	8mo	$309,990	$186	75
132 Duck Trl	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,721 (-4%)	6mo	$319,990	$186	53
1731 Great Bittern	0.74mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,892 (+5%)	3mo	$253,950	$134	48
15505 Laughing Owl	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,625 (-10%)	1mo	$269,950	$166	41
7914 Rock Wren Fall	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (-1%)	21mo	$292,952	$165	39
13808 Chital Chase	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-13%)	8mo	$236,999	$150	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-63,462
• Equity at exit: $38,543

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-97,924
• Equity at exit: $22,350

Cash invested: $72,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78253

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,877/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,303

Max offer price $222,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-159	+0% $-248	+5% $-337	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-405	-5% $-327	+0% $-248	+5% $-169	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-182	base $-248	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,625
• Closing costs: $7,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15583 Lonehollow Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,100	$1.45	46d	1	0.04mi
165-169 Nespral San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,750	$1.18	25d	1	0.75mi
4506 County Road 3841 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,500	$1.22	25d	1	0.85mi
15526 Suess Hl Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	45d	1	1.18mi
1616 House Finch Dr San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	1891	$2,025	$1.07	16d	1	1.18mi
5103 Cindy Br Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,595	$1.25	45d	1	1.19mi
5103 Cindy Br Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1280	$1,595	$1.25	23d	1	1.19mi
5107 Cindy Br Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,599	$1.23	25d	1	1.20mi
5111 Cindy Br Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,695	$1.14	23d	1	1.21mi
5111 Cindy Br Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,695	$1.14	25d	1	1.21mi
5115 Cindy Br Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1676	$1,750	$1.04	45d	1	1.22mi
5119 Cindy Br Unit 2 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,695	$1.30	0d	1	1.24mi
5123 Cindy Br Unit A San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,695	$1.14	12d	1	1.25mi
5123 Cindy Br Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,695	$1.14	25d	1	1.25mi
5203 Green Clb Unit 1 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,645	$1.26	25d	1	1.26mi
145 County Road 3821 San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,395	$0.89	45d	1	1.31mi
108 Little Owl San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2498	$2,600	$1.04	45d	1	1.32mi
5202 Morgan Crst San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2196	$1,900	$0.87	6d	1	1.38mi
111 Sabine Gull San Antonio, TX	5.0	3.0	2480	$2,600	$1.05	45d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $258,499 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $258,499 Price Change 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $258,499 Price Change 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $258,499 Price Change 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $258,499 Price Change 73 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $258,499 Price Change 72 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $257,499 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-05-10
   price $257,499 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

9. 2026-05-07
   price $256,999 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-05-07
    price $256,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-05-05
    price $257,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-05-03
    price $257,999 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

13. 2026-05-01
    listed $277,999 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

14. 2026-04-30
    price $277,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

15. 2026-04-22
    price $287,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-04-17
    price $292,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-04-11
    price $297,999 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $312,999 New 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Bergen - This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,877
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,520
• Taxable loss: −$7,515
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,282
• Household income: $106,373
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1496.0

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 34% Two or more races 27% Black 9% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.92%
• Current HPI: 199.1827
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $257,499 LERA
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $257,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $256,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $256,999 LERA
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $257,999 LERA
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $257,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-01 Listed $277,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $277,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $287,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $292,999 LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $297,999 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Listed $312,999 LERA