14 Robkins Rd

Avon, CT 06001

$1,999,900F

5 bd · 7.0 ba · 6,551 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,488
• Tax + insurance: −$3,791
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$687
• Net cashflow: $-11,694/mo
• Annual: $-140,323/yr
• Cap rate: -0.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.06%
• DSCR: -0.11
• 1% rule: 0.16%
• Cash to close: $559,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/7.0-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12k ($-140k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (81.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (83.6% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.97M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $327k (83.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Avon School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #11 of 153 in CT (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pine Grove School (math 64% / reading 69%, grade B+, #109 of 553 statewide, top 20%, 643 students, 11% FRL); Avon High School (math 72% / reading 88%, grade A, #6 of 194 statewide, top 3%, 923 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.59M; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.