15836 Joshua Dr

Dolan Springs, AZ 86441

$120,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-274/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.9% below list).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#188 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Dolan Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior walls — Significant debris and rocks around the house
• Major: landscaping — Poor landscaping and debris around the house
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Water heater and other equipment appear old and worn