15836 Joshua Dr · Dolan Springs, AZ 86441

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 249 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 1.25 ac lot $120/sqft · 40% below area Est $201k · 40% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THE STUNNING VIEWS FROM THIS HOME ARE ENJOYED BEST ON THE FRONT PORCH. AREA BEHIND HOME HAS ALREADY BEEN LEVELED OUT FOR A GARAGE TO BE ADDED. THIS HOME HAS SO MUCH POTENTIAL. JOIN THIS SMALL COMMUNITY AND ENJOY NO HOA RULES, AND LOW PROPERTY TAXES. FISHING, BOATING AND CAMPING ARE ONLY 30 MINUTES IN ANY DIRECTION. DOLAN SPRINGS HAS AN AMAZING WELL MAINTAINED TRAIL SYSTEM FOR ALL YOU HIKERS.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Stunning views
• Small community

Tags

• STUNNING VIEWS
• FRONT PORCH
• LEVELED OUT FOR A GARAGE
• SMALL COMMUNITY
• NO HOA RULES
• LOW PROPERTY TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Dolan Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#188 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,081 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,711
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -40.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $23,227
• Equity at exit: $64,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $73,014
• Equity at exit: $109,324

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86441

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 300
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $116,693

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 249 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 248 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 247 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 246 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 244 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 241 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 240 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 235 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 234 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 233 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 232 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 231 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 230 DOM
17. 2026-03-12
    price $120,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    THE STUNNING VIEWS FROM THIS HOME ARE ENJOYED BEST ON THE FRONT PORCH. AREA BEHIND HOME HAS ALREADY BEEN LEVELED OUT FOR A GARAGE TO BE ADDED. THIS HOME HAS SO MUCH POTENTIAL. JOIN THIS SMALL COMMUNITY AND ENJOY NO HOA RULES, AND LOW PROPERTY TAXES. FISHING, BOATING AND CAMPING ARE ONLY 30 MINUTES IN ANY DIRECTION. DOLAN SPRINGS HAS AN AMAZING WELL MAINTAINED TRAIL SYSTEM FOR ALL YOU HIKERS.

18. 2026-01-17
    price $90,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    THE STUNNING VIEWS FROM THIS HOME ARE ENJOYED BEST ON THE FRONT PORCH. AREA BEHIND HOME HAS ALREADY BEEN LEVELED OUT FOR A GARAGE TO BE ADDED. THIS HOME HAS SO MUCH POTENTIAL. JOIN THIS SMALL COMMUNITY AND ENJOY NO HOA RULES, AND LOW PROPERTY TAXES. FISHING, BOATING AND CAMPING ARE ONLY 30 MINUTES IN ANY DIRECTION. DOLAN SPRINGS HAS AN AMAZING WELL MAINTAINED TRAIL SYSTEM FOR ALL YOU HIKERS.

19. 2025-12-25
    price $109,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    THE STUNNING VIEWS FROM THIS HOME ARE ENJOYED BEST ON THE FRONT PORCH. AREA BEHIND HOME HAS ALREADY BEEN LEVELED OUT FOR A GARAGE TO BE ADDED. THIS HOME HAS SO MUCH POTENTIAL. JOIN THIS SMALL COMMUNITY AND ENJOY NO HOA RULES, AND LOW PROPERTY TAXES. FISHING, BOATING AND CAMPING ARE ONLY 30 MINUTES IN ANY DIRECTION. DOLAN SPRINGS HAS AN AMAZING WELL MAINTAINED TRAIL SYSTEM FOR ALL YOU HIKERS.

20. 2025-10-13
    listed $129,900 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    THE STUNNING VIEWS FROM THIS HOME ARE ENJOYED BEST ON THE FRONT PORCH. AREA BEHIND HOME HAS ALREADY BEEN LEVELED OUT FOR A GARAGE TO BE ADDED. THIS HOME HAS SO MUCH POTENTIAL. JOIN THIS SMALL COMMUNITY AND ENJOY NO HOA RULES, AND LOW PROPERTY TAXES. FISHING, BOATING AND CAMPING ARE ONLY 30 MINUTES IN ANY DIRECTION. DOLAN SPRINGS HAS AN AMAZING WELL MAINTAINED TRAIL SYSTEM FOR ALL YOU HIKERS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$558
• After-tax cash flow: $283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires significant repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. The exterior walls, landscaping, and HVAC/mechanicals need attention. Painting the interior walls and cleaning the bathrooms and kitchen would also improve the property's appearance and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior walls — Significant debris and rocks around the house
• Major landscaping — Poor landscaping and debris around the house
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Water heater and other equipment appear old and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and value
• Both Clean bathrooms and kitchen — Improves appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improves appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior walls · Significant debris and rocks around the house	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Poor landscaping and debris around the house	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Water heater and other equipment appear old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Clean bathrooms and kitchen — Improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improves appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Dolan Springs

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #19651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dolan Springs, AZ
• City population: 1,491
• Population (ZIP): 1,491

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Current HPI: 253.0329
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $120,000 WARDEX
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $90,000 WARDEX
• 2025-12-25 Price Changed $109,000 WARDEX
• 2025-10-13 Listed $129,900 WARDEX