8777 E Bay Cir

Harlem Heights, FL 33908

$249,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$821
• HOA: −$1,235
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $-282/mo
• Annual: $-3,381/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (20.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#263 in FL, #4,209 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1251 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $249k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.8% in Harlem Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,899/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1944% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.