8777 E Bay Cir · Harlem Heights, FL 33908

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,156 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $201k · 24% over $1235/mo HOA · 32% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8777 East Bay Circle in the highly sought-after community of Lexington Country Club. This beautifully updated Somerset Villa offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and the flexibility of Pay-As-You-Play golf. A screened front entry creates a warm and inviting first impression as you step inside this move-in ready residence. The kitchen features newer granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry with a convenient Lazy Susan, subway tile backsplash, and a full suite of stainless-steel appliances. Tile flooring flows throughout the main living areas, complemented by newer fans, fixtures, crown molding, and updated finishes that create a bright coastal feel. Luxury vinyl tile floor

Key facts

• Soft-close cabinetry
• Tile flooring
• Crown molding

Tags

• NEWER GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING
• CROWN MOLDING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Community contains 204 units
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (quarterly fee); Association covers cable TV, insurance, internet, irrigation water, pest control, recreation facilities, reserve fund, road maintenance, street lights, security, trash and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, community pool, bocce court, tennis courts, sidewalks, restaurant and vehicle wash area; Gated community with street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered garage with one covered space; Driveway parking; Paved access; Garage door opener
• Security: Gated community with guard; Security gate; On-site management; Security guard; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High speed internet available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story building; Entry at level 1; East-facing frontage; Has an attached guest house; Resale property; Has a view (lake)
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Lanai / screened patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Water feature / pond on lot; Automatic sprinklers / irrigation (municipal source); Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop / range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Garbage disposal; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a screened porch (listed as a room type)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; Combined living and dining area; Pantry; Shower only (separate shower); Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Split bedroom layout; Single-hung windows with shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (20.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.8% in Harlem Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#263 in FL, #4,209 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1251 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,899/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1944% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $249k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,234 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,144
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8809 Middlebrook Dr	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,247 (+8%)	1mo	$170,000	$136	69
9180 Southmont Cv E #306	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,294 (+12%)	4mo	$218,000	$168	58
9160 Southmont Cv #309	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,294 (+12%)	3mo	$225,000	$174	57
16461 Millstone Cir #302	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,276 (+10%)	4mo	$262,000	$205	46
16491 Millstone Cir #305	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,213 (+5%)	20mo	$430,000	$354	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-68,651
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -89.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-122,709
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33908

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1251
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,493/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,235
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,256

Max offer price $199,234

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-211	+0% $-282	+5% $-352	+10% $-423
Rent	-10% $-590	-5% $-436	+0% $-282	+5% $-128	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-218	base $-282	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8837 E Bay Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,600	$2.25	25d	1	0.15mi
17100 Bridgestone Ct #303 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$4,575	$3.89	16d	1	0.28mi
17020 Willowcrest Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1344	$2,500	$1.86	17d	2	0.31mi
17120 Bridgestone Ct #104 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1282	$2,400	$1.87	25d	1	0.33mi
17120 Bridgestone Ct #104 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$2,400	$2.04	5d	1	0.33mi
9190 Southmont Cv #309 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$6,500	$4.88	3d	1	0.36mi
17006 Middlebrook Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1247	$6,300	$5.05	16d	1	0.40mi
17006 Middlebrook Ct Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1498	$6,300	$4.21	17d	1	0.40mi
9140 Southmont Cv #102 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,500	$1.88	16d	1	0.40mi
9170 Southmont Cv Fort Myers, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1358	$4,725	$3.48	16d	1	0.47mi
16491 Millstone Cir #207 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1348	$2,000	$1.48	16d	1	0.65mi
16481 Millstone Cir #207 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$2,700	$2.00	25d	1	0.69mi
16471 Millstone Cir #303 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$6,100	$5.71	16d	1	0.72mi
16421 Millstone Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$4,400	$4.12	17d	2	0.85mi
16440 Millstone Cir #203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$6,300	$5.90	16d	1	0.87mi
16430 Millstone Cir #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$6,300	$5.90	16d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,235 · $14,820/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,493 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,493 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,493
• − Insurance: −$6,364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,743
• − Management: −$3,743
• − HOA: −$14,820
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,805/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Harlem Heights

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #4209

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,423
• Household income: $75,396
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1944.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.22%
• Current HPI: 209.7595
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.18%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+96.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $249,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-22 Rental Removed $2,400 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listed for Rent $2,400 FORTMLS
• 2024-10-02 Rental Removed $2,400 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $2,400 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-02-16 Listed $379,900 FORTMLS
• 1997-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $126,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,493 · +60.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.