205 Oceangate Dr

Atlantic Beach, FL 32233

$315,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Built 2016 · Townhouse · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,477/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,127/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (21.4% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $248k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#409 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.3% in Atlantic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.