509 Rogers Cemetery Rd

Pennington Gap, VA 24277

$99,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $262/mo
• Annual: $3,138/yr
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.32%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#410 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $99k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.