509 Rogers Cemetery Rd · Pennington Gap, VA 24277

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1972 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is a singlewide manufactured home that has been added onto over the years. Nice screened in porch overlooking the yard. Three rooms can be used as bedrooms, or two bedrooms and a den. Large bathroom with standup shower. Sold as-is. All information taken from third party and tax records. Buyer and buyers agent to verify. Square footage and build date estimated. Some photos may be taken with wide-angle lens and may cause rooms to appear larger.

Key facts

• Eat-in dining area
• Screened-in porch
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ENDLESS CABINET SPACE
• PLENTIFUL COUNTERTOPS
• EAT-IN DINING AREA
• SCREENED-IN PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking on main level
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family home (not attached); Building area reported from tax records: 1,368
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Vinyl windows; Storage structure; Private, wooded lot with creek; Level to rolling slope terrain; Mountain and country views

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Bedroom 2
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Other heating; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace (other); Crawl space (sealed)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#410 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $99k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.32%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $42,813
• Equity at exit: $59,704

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $113,483
• Equity at exit: $106,150

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24277

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $238/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $99,000 Active
17. 2024-05-23
    soldstatus $38,001
18. 2024-05-16
    soldstatus $38,001 Closed 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This home is a singlewide manufactured home that has been added onto over the years. Nice screened in porch overlooking the yard. Three rooms can be used as bedrooms, or two bedrooms and a den. Large bathroom with standup shower. Sold as-is. All information taken from third party and tax records. Buyer and buyers agent to verify. Square footage and build date estimated. Some photos may be taken with wide-angle lens and may cause rooms to appear larger.

19. 2024-05-01
    status Pending 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This home is a singlewide manufactured home that has been added onto over the years. Nice screened in porch overlooking the yard. Three rooms can be used as bedrooms, or two bedrooms and a den. Large bathroom with standup shower. Sold as-is. All information taken from third party and tax records. Buyer and buyers agent to verify. Square footage and build date estimated. Some photos may be taken with wide-angle lens and may cause rooms to appear larger.

20. 2024-04-26
    listed $38,000 Active 456-char remark

    Show marketing remark (456 chars)

    This home is a singlewide manufactured home that has been added onto over the years. Nice screened in porch overlooking the yard. Three rooms can be used as bedrooms, or two bedrooms and a den. Large bathroom with standup shower. Sold as-is. All information taken from third party and tax records. Buyer and buyers agent to verify. Square footage and build date estimated. Some photos may be taken with wide-angle lens and may cause rooms to appear larger.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $238 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 241.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$238
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$380
• After-tax cash flow: $2,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — Pennington Gap

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #17149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,379

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Current HPI: 165.997
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+160.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $99,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $38,001 Public Records
• 2024-05-16 Sold (MLS) $38,001 TVRMLS
• 2024-05-01 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2024-04-26 Listed $38,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $238 · +41.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.