1421 Lake Dr

Samburg, TN 38232

$1,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,779
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-1,485/mo
• Annual: $-17,816/yr
• Cap rate: 1.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.76%
• DSCR: 0.17
• 1% rule: 0.32%
• Cash to close: $94,989

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($985) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $985 (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#285 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 508.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.