1421 Lake Dr · Samburg, TN 38232

$1,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1971 4,862 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Live & Online Auction!!! This 2,468 sq. ft. single-story residence at 1421 Lake Dr offers a harmonious blend of rustic charm and modern convenience. The home boasts three bedrooms, including a spacious 260 sq. ft. primary suite, and three full bathrooms. Throughout the property, wood-paneled walls create a warm, cabin-like atmosphere, complemented by large windows that flood the rooms with natural light and provide scenic lake views. The open-concept living area features a cozy fireplace and connects seamlessly to the Kitchen, which is equipped with stainless steel appliances and ample cabinetry. A built-in Dining nook adds functionality to the space. The Bathrooms showcase a mix of s

Key facts

• Modern convenience
• Large windows
• Scenic lake views

Tags

• RUSTIC CHARM
• MODERN CONVENIENCE
• WOOD PANELED WALLS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• SCENIC LAKE VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA

🔨 Auction listing. The $1,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $339,248 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1k).
• Recommended offer: $985 (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#285 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($985) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 508.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $985 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.76%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 26.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,248
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1154 Lake Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+3%)	9mo	$207,000	$123	51
1645 Lake Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,755 (+8%)	8mo	$365,000	$208	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-53,677
• Equity at exit: $152,541

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-58,485
• Equity at exit: $235,083

Cash invested: $94,989 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38232

• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,779
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$424 /mo · $5,089/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-1,485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,968

Max offer price $124,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,250	-5% $-1,367	+0% $-1,485	+5% $-1,602	+10% $-1,719
Rent	-10% $-1,571	-5% $-1,528	+0% $-1,485	+5% $-1,442	+10% $-1,399
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,314	-0.5pp $-1,398	base $-1,485	+0.5pp $-1,573	+1.0pp $-1,662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,812
• Closing costs: $10,177
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-26
   soldstatus $228,000
2. 2026-02-15
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-20
   listed $1,000 Active
4. 2003-04-17
   soldstatus $155,000
5. 1995-05-02
   soldstatus $92,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,003
• − Property taxes: −$5,089
• − Insurance: −$1,696
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,045
• − Management: −$1,045
• − Depreciation: −$9,869
• Taxable loss: −$24,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,925
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Obion County
• NCES district ID: 4703270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,678
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5710
• State rank: #17 of 139 in TN

Livability — Samburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #20093

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,254

Population outlook (Obion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,434 people
• By 2030: 27,100 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 24,381 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 22,043 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 18,236 · -35.9%
• By 2100: 16,435 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Obion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.2% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+146.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $228,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-15 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-01-20 Listed $1,000 CWTAR
• 2003-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.