405 5th St

Lincoln, IL 62656

$50,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $836/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $217/mo
• Annual: $2,600/yr
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.57%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($836 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#509 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Chsd 404 (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #367 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Comm High School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #304 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 786 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.