405 5th St · Lincoln, IL 62656

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · Other public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1920 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a corner lot within walking distance of various amenities, this tidy two-bedroom aluminum sided bungalow is packed with opportunity for improvement! Interior boasts an enclosed front porch, front facing living room, eat-in kitchen, two bedrooms, and a full hall bath (currently gutted). Property also features a partial basement, detached garage, older storage shed, and a whole lot of potential both inside as well as outside! * * Sold entirely as is -- cash or conventional financing only, please. * *

Key facts

• Partial basement
• Eat-in kitchen
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• FRONT FACING LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1920; Multiple levels including main, upper, lower and basement
• Construction: Shingle roof; Partial unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Corner, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level: one ~16 x 12, one ~9 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Laminate in living room and kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($836 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#509 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Chsd 404 (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #367 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Comm High School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #304 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 786 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.57%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $5,772
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $23,093
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62656

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,924/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $561

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1103 N State St Lincoln, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$825	$0.83	21d	1	1.06mi
1455 Castle Manor Dr Lincoln, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	835	$845	$1.01	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,924 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,924 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,924
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$802
• − Management: −$802
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $1,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$478
• After-tax cash flow: $2,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Chsd 404
• NCES district ID: 1723050
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,489
• Composite: 20.4/100
• National rank: #8590
• State rank: #367 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #10514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, IL
• City population: 18,364
• Population (ZIP): 18,364

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,066 people
• By 2030: 27,370 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 26,078 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 24,908 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 22,504 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 19,226 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.5) · D 28.2% · R 69.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -16.9pp · 2024: -41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.5 2020: R+39.8 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+16.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.45%
• Current HPI: 133.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $50,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,924 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.