4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
3,186 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 155 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,423/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,914
Tax + insurance
−$421
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$509
Net cashflow
$-421/mo
Annual
$-5,052/yr
Cap rate
4.91%
Cash-on-cash
-4.94%
DSCR
0.78
1% rule
0.66%
Cash to close
$102,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (20.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (33.6% below list).
It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $242k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#1,007 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $180k; list at $365k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5DM3379HM3268G
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29