5355 River Rd NE #103

Keizer, OR 97303

$12,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax + insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $985/mo
• Annual: $11,823/yr
• Cap rate: 104.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 351.87%
• DSCR: 16.66
• 1% rule: 11.20%
• Cash to close: $3,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $12k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $12k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keizer Elementary School (561 students, 70% FRL); Claggett Creek Middle School (829 students, 73% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 53% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 104.8% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.