5355 River Rd NE #103 · Keizer, OR 97303

$12,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1969 $17/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living in 55+ park. New heat installed in 2020. Updated windows. Updated electrical. All appliances included. Common area amenities include pool and club house. RV parking available.

Key facts

• Oversized shed
• Vinyl windows
• Garbage disposal

Tags

• OVERSIZED SHED
• STACKING WASHER AND DRYER
• GARBAGE DISPOSAL
• VINYL WINDOWS
• RUBBER ROOF
• MINI SPLIT HEAT AND AC

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No home warranty; No assessments or liens noted
• HOA & community: Park rent includes swimming pool, sewer, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: City sewer; Private/community/district water; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; Adult park (age-restricted community); Park name: McNary Oaks; Front door described (building note)
• Construction: Built in 1969; Aluminum siding (T111 style); Pier foundation; Roof: see remarks
• Exterior features: Partial fenced yard; Covered deck; Landscaped; Shed/outbuilding; RV/camper pad area available

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range included; Dishwasher; Refrigerator included; Freezer included; Custom cabinets and counters (need finishing)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One main bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating (mini split for cooling/air)
• Interior features: High-speed communication available; Disposal included
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $12k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 104.8% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keizer Elementary School (561 students, 70% FRL); Claggett Creek Middle School (829 students, 73% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 53% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $11,640 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 11.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 104.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 351.87%
• DSCR: 16.66
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,000
• List price: $12,000
• Delta: -52.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5355 River Rd NE #84	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	1mo	$17,000	$25	88
5355 River Rd N #85	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	4mo	$25,000	$37	86
5355 River Rd N #13	0.00mi	2/1.0	732 (+2%)	22mo	$12,500	$17	79
5355 River Rd N #56	0.00mi	2/2.0	792 (+10%)	1mo	$20,000	$25	78
5355 River Rd N	0.11mi	2/2.0	792 (+10%)	1mo	$20,000	$25	73
5355 River Rd #39	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	23mo	$20,000	$30	70
5510 Windsor Island Rd N #19	0.56mi	2/1.0	744 (+3%)	7mo	$37,350	$50	62
1192 Chemawa Lp NE	0.69mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	8mo	$59,000	$74	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.40×
• Total profit: $61,830
• Equity at exit: $1,789

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 42.34×
• Total profit: $138,905
• Equity at exit: $1,038

Cash invested: $3,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $100/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $985

Break-even live

Break-even rent $96

Max offer price $12,000

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $992	-5% $989	+0% $985	+5% $982	+10% $978
Rent	-10% $879	-5% $932	+0% $985	+5% $1,038	+10% $1,091
Rate	-1.0pp $991	-0.5pp $988	base $985	+0.5pp $982	+1.0pp $979

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,000
• Closing costs: $360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-563 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	690	$1,099	$1.59	15d	1	0.31mi
235 Cummings Ln N Unit 263 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	675	$1,095	$1.62	15d	1	0.90mi
4525 Rivercrest Dr N Unit 4525 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	45d	1	0.91mi
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,914	$1.98	15d	10	1.04mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	45d	1	1.12mi
1124 McGee Ct NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,450	$1.67	0d	13	1.26mi
4327 Arnold St NE Unit 4327 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	600	$1,550	$2.58	25d	1	1.29mi
132-168 Sunset Ave N Unit 134 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	572	$995	$1.74	22d	1	1.35mi
132-168 Sunset Ave N Unit 136 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	572	$995	$1.74	45d	1	1.35mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4018 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	25d	1	1.36mi
4014-4040 Arleta Ave NE Unit 4034 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	602	$995	$1.65	45d	1	1.36mi
3960 Cherry Ave NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,900	$2.12	15d	4	1.44mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $12,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $12,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $15,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 492-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $15,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $15,000 Active 484-char remark
18. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Affordable living in 55+ park. New heat installed in 2020. Updated windows. Updated electrical. All appliances included. Common area amenities include pool and club house. RV parking available.

19. 2022-07-11
    soldstatus $35,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Affordable living in 55+ park. New heat pump installed in 2020. Updated windows. Updated electrical. all appliances included. Common area amenities include pool and club house. RV parking available. Rent is $790 per month which includes water. Sewer and trash extra.

20. 2022-06-13
    status Pending 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Affordable living in 55+ park. New heat pump installed in 2020. Updated windows. Updated electrical. all appliances included. Common area amenities include pool and club house. RV parking available. Rent is $790 per month which includes water. Sewer and trash extra.

21. 2022-06-13
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Affordable living in 55+ park. New heat pump installed in 2020. Updated windows. Updated electrical. all appliances included. Common area amenities include pool and club house. RV parking available. Rent is $790 per month which includes water. Sewer and trash extra.

22. 2022-05-31
    historical
23. 2022-05-23
    listed $35,000 Active
24. 2022-05-20
    listed $35,000 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Affordable living in 55+ park. New heat installed in 2020. Updated windows. Updated electrical. All appliances included. Common area amenities include pool and club house. RV parking available.

25. 2022-05-16
    listed $35,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Affordable living in 55+ park. New heat pump installed in 2020. Updated windows. Updated electrical. all appliances included. Common area amenities include pool and club house. RV parking available. Rent is $790 per month which includes water. Sewer and trash extra.

26. 2019-09-05
    soldstatus $11,000 Sold
27. 2019-08-26
    historical Active under Contract
28. 2019-07-17
    status Active
29. 2019-07-13
    historical Active under Contract
30. 2019-07-09
    listed $12,000 Active
31. 2007-05-01
    soldstatus $6,000
32. 2007-04-25
    historical
33. 2007-02-16
    listed $8,995

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $100 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $116 · $10/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$672
• − Property taxes: −$100
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$349
• Taxable income: $12,363
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,967
• After-tax cash flow: $8,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $12,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $15,000 WVMLS
• 2022-07-15 Sold (MLS) $35,000 RMLS
• 2022-07-11 Sold (MLS) $35,000 WVMLS
• 2022-06-13 Pending — RMLS
• 2022-06-13 Pending — WVMLS
• 2022-05-31 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $35,000 WVMLS
• 2022-05-20 Listed $35,000 RMLS
• 2022-05-16 Listed $35,000 WVMLS
• 2019-09-05 Sold (MLS) $11,000 WVMLS
• 2019-08-26 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2019-07-17 Relisted — WVMLS
• 2019-07-13 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2019-07-09 Listed $12,000 WVMLS
• 2007-05-01 Sold (MLS) $6,000 WVMLS
• 2007-04-25 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2007-02-16 Listed $8,995 WVMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2017): $100 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.