2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Manufactured
· Active
· 136 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,585/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$707
Tax + insurance
−$552
HOA
−$50
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$333
Net cashflow
$-57/mo
Annual
$-686/yr
Cap rate
9.58%
Cash-on-cash
11.73%
DSCR
1.52
1% rule
1.18%
Cash to close
$37,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-686/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (7.5% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#421 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pine Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 45%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 991 students, 60% FRL); West Hernando Middle School (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 695 students, 58% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 691 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 6.3% in Brookridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
CashFlowRE · CFR-5DP68S5QZ60J66
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29