10281 Walnut Dr

Marcellus, MI 49093

$138,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1968 · Manufactured · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $793/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$728
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,340/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $38,892

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (42.9% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $960 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#202 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers Community Schools (town): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #200 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norton Elementary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #236 of 1,397 statewide, top 19%, 262 students, 61% FRL); Three Rivers Middle School (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #283 of 493 statewide, top 58%, 537 students, 47% FRL); Three Rivers High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 653 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $139k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.9% in Marcellus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.