10281 Walnut Dr · Marcellus, MI 49093

$138,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1968 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet Long Lake Getaway! Charming, remodeled 3-season home on owned land with nearly 50 ft of channel frontage on Long Lake--known for great muskie fishing. Peaceful setting backing up to a wooded hill for added privacy. Features a fully remodeled kitchen with new fridge, hood fan, gas stove, and water heater, plus a newly remodeled bathroom. Two beautiful Sunset Maples provide great shade. No land lease--you own the land, with potential to build per township. Sold turnkey with all furniture, beds, and TV included. Shed stocked with generator, mini fridge, electric mower, and hand tools (rider mower excluded). 100-amp electrical upgraded to breakers. New well in 2022. Move-in ready--just bring your bags!

Key facts

• New well
• Remodeled kitchen
• Channel frontage

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEWLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• CHANNEL FRONTAGE
• 100 AMP ELECTRICAL UPGRADED
• NEW WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-94/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#202 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Three Rivers Community Schools (town): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #200 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norton Elementary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #236 of 1,397 statewide, top 19%, 262 students, 61% FRL); Three Rivers Middle School (math 30% / reading 40%, grade F, #283 of 493 statewide, top 58%, 537 students, 47% FRL); Three Rivers High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 653 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $960 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $139k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $103,007 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-23,075
• Equity at exit: $20,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-21,016
• Equity at exit: $12,010

Cash invested: $38,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49093

• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$728
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $423/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,040

Max offer price $137,520

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $71	-5% $32	+0% $-8	+5% $-47	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-48	+0% $-8	+5% $33	+10% $74
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $28	base $-8	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,725
• Closing costs: $4,167
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $138,900 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $138,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $138,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $138,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $138,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $138,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $142,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $142,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-04-16
    listed $142,900 Active 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Quiet Long Lake Getaway! Charming, remodeled 3-season home on owned land with nearly 50 ft of channel frontage on Long Lake--known for great muskie fishing. Peaceful setting backing up to a wooded hill for added privacy. Features a fully remodeled kitchen with new fridge, hood fan, gas stove, and water heater, plus a newly remodeled bathroom. Two beautiful Sunset Maples provide great shade. No land lease--you own the land, with potential to build per township. Sold turnkey with all furniture, beds, and TV included. Shed stocked with generator, mini fridge, electric mower, and hand tools (rider mower excluded). 100-amp electrical upgraded to breakers. New well in 2022. Move-in ready--just bring your bags!

13. 2026-04-16
    price $142,900 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Quiet Long Lake Getaway! Charming, remodeled 3-season home on owned land with nearly 50 ft of channel frontage on Long Lake--known for great muskie fishing. Peaceful setting backing up to a wooded hill for added privacy. Features a fully remodeled kitchen with new fridge, hood fan, gas stove, and water heater, plus a newly remodeled bathroom. Two beautiful Sunset Maples provide great shade. No land lease--you own the land, with potential to build per township. Sold turnkey with all furniture, beds, and TV included. Shed stocked with generator, mini fridge, electric mower, and hand tools (rider mower excluded). 100-amp electrical upgraded to breakers. New well in 2022. Move-in ready--just bring your bags!

14. 2026-04-16
    listed $144,900 Active 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Quiet Long Lake Getaway! Charming, remodeled 3-season home on owned land with nearly 50 ft of channel frontage on Long Lake--known for great muskie fishing. Peaceful setting backing up to a wooded hill for added privacy. Features a fully remodeled kitchen with new fridge, hood fan, gas stove, and water heater, plus a newly remodeled bathroom. Two beautiful Sunset Maples provide great shade. No land lease--you own the land, with potential to build per township. Sold turnkey with all furniture, beds, and TV included. Shed stocked with generator, mini fridge, electric mower, and hand tools (rider mower excluded). 100-amp electrical upgraded to breakers. New well in 2022. Move-in ready--just bring your bags!

15. 2026-04-16
    listed $142,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Quiet Long Lake Getaway! Charming, remodeled 3-season home on owned land with nearly 50 ft of channel frontage on Long Lake--known for great muskie fishing. Peaceful setting backing up to a wooded hill for added privacy. Features a fully remodeled kitchen with new fridge, hood fan, gas stove, and water heater, plus a newly remodeled bathroom. Two beautiful Sunset Maples provide great shade. No land lease--you own the land, with potential to build per township. Sold turnkey with all furniture, beds, and TV included. Shed stocked with generator, mini fridge, electric mower, and hand tools (rider mower excluded). 100-amp electrical upgraded to breakers. New well in 2022. Move-in ready--just bring your bags!

16. 2025-11-07
    historical
17. 2025-08-11
    listed $144,900 Active
18. 2025-08-08
    listed $144,900 Active
19. 2022-02-24
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold
21. 2022-02-22
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold
22. 2022-01-31
    status Pending
23. 2022-01-31
    status Pending
24. 2021-09-18
    price $104,900
25. 2021-09-18
    price $104,900
26. 2021-09-01
    price $109,900
27. 2021-09-01
    price $109,900
28. 2021-08-13
    listed $114,900 Active
29. 2021-08-13
    listed $114,900 Active
30. 2021-08-13
    listed $104,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$858/yr (+$71/mo · 202.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,781
• − Property taxes: −$423
• − Insurance: −$694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$989
• − Management: −$989
• − Depreciation: −$4,041
• Taxable loss: −$2,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$613
• After-tax cash flow: $520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Rivers Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,576
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5058
• State rank: #200 of 540 in MI

Livability — Marcellus

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #5150

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,439

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,726 people
• By 2030: 57,030 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 53,266 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 49,343 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 40,441 · -31.1%
• By 2100: 31,981 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Iranian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+12.3 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.07%
• Current HPI: 226.5079
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+24.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $142,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $142,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $142,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $144,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-11-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $144,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-08-08 Listed $144,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-22 Sold (MLS) $90,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2022-02-22 Sold (MLS) $90,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-01-31 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-01-31 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-09-18 Price Changed $104,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-09-18 Price Changed $104,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-09-01 Price Changed $109,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-09-01 Price Changed $109,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-08-13 Listed $104,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-08-13 Listed $114,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-08-13 Listed $114,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $423 · -76.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.