5001 Northstar Dr Unit 207 March Wk. 1 - Share 7

Truckee, CA 96161

$159,000C+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,780 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 414 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$1,282
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,038
• Net cashflow: $1,456/mo
• Annual: $17,472/yr
• Cap rate: 17.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.25%
• DSCR: 2.75
• 1% rule: 3.11%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $136k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,945/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.