485 Bay St

Springfield, MA 01109

$399,000D

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,670 sqft · Built 1922 · MultiFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$798
• Net cashflow: $468/mo
• Annual: $5,616/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (4.8% below list).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $375k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#97 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Springfield (urban): math 13% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #296 of 302 in MA (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca M Johnson (math 9% / reading 26%, grade F, #811 of 938 statewide, top 87%, 579 students, 0% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle (math 5% / reading 11%, grade F, #297 of 305 statewide, top 97%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Springfield Central High (math 27% / reading 41%, grade F, #250 of 343 statewide, top 73%, 2,095 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 81% district-wide (81 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Hampden County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hampden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $399k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,800/mo this rent would consume 94% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.