1454 Acorn Ct

Missouri City, TX 77489

$275,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,549 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,478/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$797
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-332/mo
• Annual: $-3,984/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (9.9% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $216k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $385 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.