1454 Acorn Ct · Missouri City, TX 77489

$275,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,549 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2002 5,832 sqft lot $108/sqft · at area comps Est $282k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed two-story residence tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Missouri City’s established Quail Green community. Offering approximately 2,432 square feet, this spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms—perfect for households needing room to grow or anyone who values extra space.Recently updated with fresh interior paint and new carpet, the home features a bright, open living area designed for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a private bath featuring a separate shower, relaxing soaking tub, and a dedicated water closet.A generous backyard provides plenty of outdoor space for play, gardening, or gatherings, making this home an ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and community living.

Key facts

• 5,832 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $385 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,353 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,217
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2614 Ibis Way	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,508 (-2%)	6mo	$330,000	$132	76
1426 Cartwright Rd	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,412 (-5%)	4mo	$275,000	$114	76
8622 Quail Burg Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,473 (-3%)	4mo	$239,000	$97	75
2010 Stonework Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,650 (+4%)	2mo	$345,500	$130	60
16527 Quail Briar Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,694 (+6%)	6mo	$229,900	$85	56
1606 Avocet Way	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,209 (-13%)	7mo	$280,000	$127	56
1450 Gentle Bend Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,482 (-3%)	7mo	$309,900	$125	55
2134 Hilton Head Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,420 (-5%)	1mo	$259,777	$107	54
3234 Cherry Springs Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,292 (-10%)	4mo	$238,500	$104	51
2010 Quail Valley East Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,651 (+4%)	8mo	$174,950	$66	51
1130 Hyde Lake Ln	0.75mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,662 (+4%)	7mo	$399,900	$150	47
1715 Eastfield Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,167 (-15%)	6mo	$339,900	$157	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-42,418
• Equity at exit: $72,357

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-59,862
• Equity at exit: $81,200

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$683 /mo · $8,194/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,898

Max offer price $216,353

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	44d	1	0.20mi
2010 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2651	$2,695	$1.02	44d	1	0.64mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	17d	1	0.91mi
1323 Park Crest Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2607	$2,600	$1.00	44d	1	0.91mi
2319 Quail Valley East Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	3.0	2235	$2,000	$0.89	44d	1	1.01mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	13d	1	1.07mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	21d	1	1.13mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	21d	1	1.15mi
1935 Poco Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2868	$2,326	$0.81	22d	1	1.18mi
1109 Lakes Edge Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2847	$2,800	$0.98	21d	1	1.21mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	1.22mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	21d	1	1.30mi
2007 Village Park Dr Missouri City, TX	5.0	2.5	2536	$2,625	$1.04	44d	1	1.38mi
3907 Kiamesha Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2896	$2,750	$0.95	17d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Pending 37 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   price $275,000 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed two-story residence tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Missouri City’s established Quail Green community. Offering approximately 2,432 square feet, this spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms—perfect for households needing room to grow or anyone who values extra space.Recently updated with fresh interior paint and new carpet, the home features a bright, open living area designed for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a private bath featuring a separate shower, relaxing soaking tub, and a dedicated water closet.A generous backyard provides plenty of outdoor space for play, gardening, or gatherings, making this home an ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and community living.

4. 2026-05-04
   price $285,000 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed two-story residence tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Missouri City’s established Quail Green community. Offering approximately 2,432 square feet, this spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms—perfect for households needing room to grow or anyone who values extra space.Recently updated with fresh interior paint and new carpet, the home features a bright, open living area designed for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a private bath featuring a separate shower, relaxing soaking tub, and a dedicated water closet.A generous backyard provides plenty of outdoor space for play, gardening, or gatherings, making this home an ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and community living.

5. 2026-04-25
   listed $290,000 Active 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed two-story residence tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Missouri City’s established Quail Green community. Offering approximately 2,432 square feet, this spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms—perfect for households needing room to grow or anyone who values extra space.Recently updated with fresh interior paint and new carpet, the home features a bright, open living area designed for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a private bath featuring a separate shower, relaxing soaking tub, and a dedicated water closet.A generous backyard provides plenty of outdoor space for play, gardening, or gatherings, making this home an ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and community living.

6. 2026-04-24
   price $290,000 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed two-story residence tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Missouri City’s established Quail Green community. Offering approximately 2,432 square feet, this spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms—perfect for households needing room to grow or anyone who values extra space.Recently updated with fresh interior paint and new carpet, the home features a bright, open living area designed for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a private bath featuring a separate shower, relaxing soaking tub, and a dedicated water closet.A generous backyard provides plenty of outdoor space for play, gardening, or gatherings, making this home an ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and community living.

7. 2026-04-23
   historical $305,000 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed two-story residence tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac in Missouri City’s established Quail Green community. Offering approximately 2,432 square feet, this spacious layout includes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms—perfect for households needing room to grow or anyone who values extra space.Recently updated with fresh interior paint and new carpet, the home features a bright, open living area designed for both everyday comfort and effortless entertaining. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a private bath featuring a separate shower, relaxing soaking tub, and a dedicated water closet.A generous backyard provides plenty of outdoor space for play, gardening, or gatherings, making this home an ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and community living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,194 · $683/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,194 · $683/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$8,194
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $305,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,194 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.