6943 Witmer Rd

North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$418,500C+

9 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,696 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,195
• Tax + insurance: −$893
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,034
• Net cashflow: $802/mo
• Annual: $9,628/yr
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $117,180

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $418k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $267/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $418k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #163 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $181k; list at $418k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $117k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,924/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.