6943 Witmer Rd · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$418,500

9 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,696 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1986 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Welcome to 6943 Witmer Rd, a great opportunity in a convenient North Tonawanda location. This property offers solid potential for buyers looking to make it their own or for investors seeking their next project. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major routes, it provides easy access while still offering a residential setting. With plenty of upside, this property is ready for its next owner to unlock its full potential.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $418k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $802 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $267/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $418k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #163 of 590 in NY (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,924/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1303% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $117k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $181k; list at $418k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $418,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.22%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,422
• Equity at exit: $62,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $131,194
• Equity at exit: $36,184

Cash invested: $117,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 21.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,195
• Tax from tax record: −$719 /mo · $8,623/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,034
• Net cashflow: $802

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,908

Max offer price $418,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,039	-5% $921	+0% $802	+5% $684	+10% $565
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $608	+0% $802	+5% $997	+10% $1,191
Rate	-1.0pp $1,013	-0.5pp $909	base $802	+0.5pp $694	+1.0pp $584

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	1.5	$4,923
Total (3 units)			$4,924

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,625
• Closing costs: $12,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-01
   listed $418,500 Active
3. 2019-06-14
   soldstatus $181,274
4. 2018-08-29
   soldstatus $195,000
5. 2000-02-25
   soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,623 · $719/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,623 · $719/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,443
• − Property taxes: −$8,623
• − Insurance: −$2,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,727
• − Management: −$4,727
• − Depreciation: −$12,175
• Taxable income: $3,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $8,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara-Wheatfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620850
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $57,051
• Composite: 57.53/100
• National rank: #1067
• State rank: #163 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+232.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $418,500 WNYREIS
• 2019-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $181,274 Public Records
• 2018-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,623 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.