3814 Lamb Dr

Tyler, TX 75709

$439,900C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,760 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$779
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $470/mo
• Annual: $5,635/yr
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $440k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($433k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $433k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dixie El (math 28% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 616 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 66% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tyler ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.