444 N El Camino Real Pkwy Spc 64

Encinitas, CA 92024

$749,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,634 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,608/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax + insurance: −$730
• HOA: −$285
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,178
• Net cashflow: $-517/mo
• Annual: $-6,209/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $209,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $750k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-517 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $658k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $561k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($727k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $561k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#54 in CA, #2,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• San Dieguito Union High (urban): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #56 of 1,400 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Park Dale Lane Elementary (437 students, 30% FRL); Oak Crest Middle (802 students, 24% FRL); Canyon Crest Academy (2,336 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $750k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.6% in Encinitas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.