24806 Long St

Fall River Mills, CA 96028

$225,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 947 sqft · Built 1912 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-64/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-64/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (21.0% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,038 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fall River Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 282 students, 51% FRL); Fall River Junior-Senior High (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 275 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $225k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.