24806 Long St · Fall River Mills, CA 96028

$225,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 947 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1912 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom home is Fall River Mills. Cute home within walking distance to stores, Fall River and Fall River Lake. Nice kitchen with tile countertops.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1912

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-64/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,038 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fall River Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #779 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 282 students, 51% FRL); Fall River Junior-Senior High (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 275 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $225k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,766 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $25,186
• Equity at exit: $99,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $91,977
• Equity at exit: $152,184

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96028

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,632/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $224,059

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $58	+0% $-5	+5% $-69	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-76	+0% $-5	+5% $65	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $52	base $-5	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-05-19
   listed $249,000 Active
2. 2021-05-28
   soldstatus $140,000 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   4 bedroom home is Fall River Mills. Cute home within walking distance to stores, Fall River and Fall River Lake. Nice kitchen with tile countertops.

3. 2021-05-28
   soldstatus $140,000

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   4 bedroom home is Fall River Mills. Cute home within walking distance to stores, Fall River and Fall River Lake. Nice kitchen with tile countertops.

4. 2021-01-25
   listed $149,000 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   4 bedroom home is Fall River Mills. Cute home within walking distance to stores, Fall River and Fall River Lake. Nice kitchen with tile countertops.

5. 2014-10-15
   soldstatus $88,000
6. 2005-12-06
   soldstatus $67,500
7. 2003-02-05
   soldstatus $61,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,632 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,632
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$957
• After-tax cash flow: $893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fall River Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613470
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,991
• Composite: 26.57/100
• National rank: #7186
• State rank: #335 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fall River Mills

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1038
• US rank: #25079

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fall River Mills, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,667

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.87%
• Current HPI: 149.094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+304.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-19 Listed $249,000 SAOR
• 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $140,000 SAOR
• 2021-01-25 Listed $149,000 SAOR
• 2014-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2003-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,632 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.