Aspen Plan

Lowell, IN 46356

$261,995D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 304 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,376
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-871/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $73,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-871/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (9.9% below list).
• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B, #117 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 563 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.