Aspen Plan · Lowell, IN 46356

$261,995

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · Townhouse · 36 Days on market

Good condition $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of space, style, and low-maintenance living in The Aspen, a two-story townhome located in the sought-after Stone Mill community in Lowell, Indiana. With 1,616 square feet, this thoughtfully designed floor plan offers 2 to 3 bedrooms, 1.5 to 2.5 bathrooms, and smart options to fit your lifestyle. On the main floor, you'll find a bright open-concept layout with 9 ft ceilings that connects the great room to the kitchen and breakfast area-perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or spending time with family. Optional upgrades like a breakfast bar, extended cabinetry, and a sunroom bring even more function and flow to the space.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Large walk-in closet
• Open concept layout

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• AVAILABLE PATIO
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECOND FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• MULTIPLE LINEN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $261,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,687.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $262k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-497/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B, #117 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 563 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 503 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,373 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,687
• List price: $261,995
• Delta: -0.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
452 Greenbrier Ln	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,616 (0%)	3mo	$240,000	$149	78
425 Briarwood Ln	0.39mi	2/2.5	1,640 (+2%)	8mo	$235,000	$143	69
231 Sweetbriar Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,542 (-5%)	4mo	$254,900	$165	55
231 Sweetbriar Ct	0.63mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,542 (-5%)	4mo	$254,900	$165	55
18502 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,717 (+6%)	10mo	$282,000	$164	54
18532 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,767 (+9%)	10mo	$263,444	$149	49
18501 Percy Ln	0.36mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	3mo	$304,950	$166	49
8330 Kannon Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,815 (+12%)	6mo	$285,000	$157	47
8386 Kannon Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,815 (+12%)	3mo	$290,000	$160	45
8366 Kannon Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	5mo	$290,000	$158	42
18512 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	10mo	$274,204	$149	42
18522 Percy Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	10mo	$272,005	$148	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,092
• Equity at exit: $39,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,204
• Equity at exit: $22,712

Cash invested: $73,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,445 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 36 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 503
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,940/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,456

Max offer price $256,693

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $49	+0% $-41	+5% $-132	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-136	+0% $-41	+5% $54	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $25	base $-41	+0.5pp $-109	+1.0pp $-179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,672
• Closing costs: $7,881
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8301 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,800	$1.63	111d	1	0.43mi
8362 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,300	$1.30	0d	1	0.48mi
8366 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,450	$1.33	94d	1	0.48mi
673 Joe Martin Rd Lowell, IN	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,050	$1.53	31d	1	0.98mi
673 Joe Martin Rd Lowell, IN	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,050	$1.53	41d	1	0.98mi
673 Joe Martin Rd Lowell, IN	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,050	$1.53	33d	1	0.98mi
561 Eastwood Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,600	$1.93	79d	1	1.17mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Lowell, IN (5652 Onyx Ave listed)
• HOA & community: Association fee of 125

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Aspen)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,616

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named AspenActive new construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $261,995 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $261,995 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $261,995 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $261,995 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $261,995 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $261,995 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $261,995 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $261,995 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $261,995 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $261,995 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $261,995 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $261,995 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $261,995 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $261,995 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $261,995 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $261,995 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $261,995 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $261,995 Active 12 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $261,995 Active 11 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $261,995 Active 10 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $261,995 Active 9 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $261,995 Active 8 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $261,995 Active 7 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $261,995 Active 6 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $261,995 Active 5 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $261,995 Active 4 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $261,995 Active 3 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $261,995 Active 2 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on marketlisting id $261,995 Active 1 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $261,995 Active 315 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $261,995 Active 314 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $261,995 Active 313 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $261,995 Active 312 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $261,995 Active 311 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $261,995 Active 310 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $261,995 Active 309 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $261,995 Active 308 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $261,995 Active 307 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $261,995 Active 306 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $261,995 Active 305 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $261,995 Active 304 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $261,995 Active 302 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $261,995 Active 301 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $261,995 Active 300 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $261,995 Active 299 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $261,995 Active 296 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $261,995 Active 295 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $261,995 Active 294 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $261,995 Active 293 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $261,995 Active 291 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,715
• − Property taxes: −$3,940
• − Insurance: −$1,313
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$7,642
• Taxable loss: −$4,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,171
• After-tax cash flow: $674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in the Aspen Plan in Lowell, Indiana, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Hill Elementary School B IN #117/994 Nat'l #6,818/41,679 Middle Lowell Middle School D IN #81/330 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Lowell Senior High School C- IN #99/369 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake · 484,026 people
• City population: 19,396
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,396
• Household income: $87,535
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Lowell, IN (5652 Onyx Ave listed)
• HOA & community: Association fee of 125

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Aspen)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,616

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan named AspenActive new construction plan